The Myth of Last Minute Hotel Deal
I was curious what is best: book well in advance or just on the day of the check-in. Apparently the latter would be more advantageous as the hotels would sell a room at a deeper discount (less money still better than no money at all). However, hotels don’t do this as I suppose they don’t want the customers to get used to booking the last minute.
And my ‘research’ proved that the earlier you book the better. I tested with looking for a hotel in Geneva, Switzerland for one night. Booking one month in advance gives the best price.
However, there is a mobile app Hotel Tonight that promises a very good same-day room rate. 
Unfortunately, they don’t have too many international cities.
About Hotel Tonight: “HotelTonight was founded in December 2010 to provide easy mobile booking of same-day distressed hotel inventory. For consumers, we offer incredible convenience and amazing value at quality hotels. For hotels, we are a marketplace to fill last-minute rooms that would otherwise remain empty.”
Your comparison is faulty–you can’t compare different dates and conclude that it’s the lead time before the booking that’s making the difference. You’d have to pick a date and watch the prices rise/fall as it got closer to that date. Otherwise, you might be comparing a high season date to a low season date, and the difference in price has little to do with the amount of time before the stay.
You could be right, however July and August are both high season.
“However, hotels don’t do this as I suppose they don’t want the customers to get used to booking the last minute”
Hotels absolutely offer deep last-minute discounts when they aren’t expecting to fill. I’ve saved 50%+ by rebooking within 48 hrs of arrival, many times, in many cities, at many different hotels (chain and indie).
The last actual bit of research on this subject that I read (and I don’t recall where or I’d link to it) concluded (via a proper methodology, as described by Mark above) that 2-4 weeks out was the worst possible time to book hotels across a variety of conditions.
I’m with Mark on this one. Faulty logic. “Season” has less to do with it. At the very least, you can’t isolate variables for the different dates. Other variables include: day of week, local special events, maintenance, etc.
To actually check for lead-time price differences, you would have to compare the same date of the stay.
You did not represent this as a scientific study, so it shouldn’t be treated as such. However, the amount of variables are unknown to simply say book far in advance. Size of the room, number of guests, day of the week (weekend vs. weekday), refundable vs. non-refundable, even whether there is some sort of national holiday or event of cultural importance around July 3 in Geneva. For example, in France, lots of Parisians head to Southern France in August, so presumably hotel rates would be higher in August than they would in July (I have no idea). But yea, there’s probably a little more that needs to go into this to reach your conclusion.
@ Nik
“I’ve saved 50%+ by rebooking within 48 hrs of arrival, many times, in many cities” This is a very good idea, book in advance just to be sure you have a room and try to find a better rate just before the no cancellation fee deadline. I will try to use this strategy.
@Truthiness
Correct, it is far away from a scientific study. I have used the same parameters: 2 guests, a Tuesday and refundable. I did not care about the room size. There is no national holiday in either France or Switzerland, though I don’t know about the local cultural events around July 3.
Sort of relevant – just tried to book hotels in Zurich and Innsbruck for next week. Hilton and Best Western company website said no availability, but got discounted rates through Priceline. Last minute discounts seem to be available but only through a limited number of channels.
@MattyBoy
My comparison didn’t use Priceline but now I was curious to test this site too.
1 room for 1 night, refundable
Jul 4, Wednesday: Hôtel Best Western Chavannes De Bogis – $157
Jul 11, Wednesday: Hotel Trente Trois – $145
Aug 8, Wednesday: Hotel St. Gervais – $103 / Hotel Trente Trois – $114